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  "licenseUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "commercialUse": "https://causamarkets.com/research/",
  "thirdPartyData": "Prices and market data come from third-party providers and are not covered by this licence.",
  "version": 1,
  "algorithm": "SHA-256 over canonical JSON (sorted keys, no spaces, UTF-8)",
  "entries": [
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 1,
      "id": "F-001",
      "edition": "2026-10-22",
      "published": "2026-10-22T15:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that Thursday's rise is fear, not lost supply. If Saudi Arabia or Aramco reports a production loss at Shaybah or any other field from these attacks by 6 November, the cause was physical and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "editor",
        "test": null,
        "evidenceNeeded": "An official Saudi Energy Ministry or Aramco statement reporting lost output.",
        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
      },
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    {
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      "id": "F-002",
      "edition": "2026-10-22",
      "published": "2026-10-22T15:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "If the Nasdaq Composite closes back above Wednesday's 26,702.86 by 30 October while Brent is still above $108, the drop was a one-session flush rather than a lasting verdict on AI spending.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "nasdaq",
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              "value": 26702.86
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            {
              "metric": "brent",
              "op": ">",
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    {
      "v": 1,
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      "id": "F-003",
      "edition": "2026-10-22",
      "published": "2026-10-22T15:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "If bitcoin closes above $84,000 by 29 October while Brent is still above $108, oil is not what is holding crypto down.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "btc",
              "op": ">",
              "value": 84000
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            {
              "metric": "brent",
              "op": ">",
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    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 4,
      "id": "F-004",
      "edition": "2026-10-22",
      "published": "2026-10-22T15:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "If gold closes below $4,000 on a day when the 10-year yield closes below 5.00%, falling rates are not rescuing it, and the rate explanation fails. Deadline 6 November.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "gold",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 4000
            },
            {
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    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 5,
      "id": "F-005",
      "edition": "2026-10-22",
      "published": "2026-10-22T15:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "If the 10-year yield closes above 5.15% by 30 October while Brent is still above $110, inflation fear is back in charge and Thursday's haven move was a one-day effect.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "us10y",
              "op": ">",
              "value": 5.15
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            {
              "metric": "brent",
              "op": ">",
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        "deadline": "2026-10-30"
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    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 6,
      "id": "F-006",
      "edition": "2026-10-23",
      "published": "2026-10-23T19:30:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that oil now prices a wider war, not a passing scare. If Brent closes below $108, where it traded before Wednesday's Shaybah strike, on any session by 6 November, the market has judged the escalation risk overdone and this file overstated it.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "brent",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 108
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          ]
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        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
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    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 7,
      "id": "F-007",
      "edition": "2026-10-23",
      "published": "2026-10-23T19:30:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "If forced selling is the cause, gold should stop falling once stocks calm down. If gold closes below $3,900 on a day the Nasdaq closes above 26,000, by 13 November, the selling is not coming from the stock rout and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "gold",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 3900
            },
            {
              "metric": "nasdaq",
              "op": ">",
              "value": 26000
            }
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        "evidenceNeeded": null,
        "deadline": "2026-11-13"
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    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 8,
      "id": "F-008",
      "edition": "2026-10-23",
      "published": "2026-10-23T19:30:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that rising oil is now the main weight on stocks, alongside AI doubts. If the S&P 500 closes above 7,757.17, its level before Meta reported, on any session by 6 November while Brent is still above $112, oil is not holding stocks back and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "spx",
              "op": ">",
              "value": 7757.17
            },
            {
              "metric": "brent",
              "op": ">",
              "value": 112
            }
          ]
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        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
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      "prev": "6f37596927f4afaa637e55cd4264cde4a77f5a73a7060869de96a3ae6e3c9e6b",
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    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 9,
      "id": "F-009",
      "edition": "2026-10-26",
      "published": "2026-10-26T18:30:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that the market heard the talks but does not yet believe them, so the war premium stays. If traders start pricing a settlement, the premium will drain. If US crude closes below $97, where it stood before last Wednesday’s strike near Shaybah, on any session by 3 November, election day, the market has begun to bet on a deal and this file misread it. We test on US crude because its front month does not change before the deadline.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "wti",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 97
            }
          ]
        },
        "evidenceNeeded": null,
        "deadline": "2026-11-03"
      },
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    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 10,
      "id": "F-010",
      "edition": "2026-10-26",
      "published": "2026-10-26T18:30:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "If the filing changed the story rather than one afternoon’s mood, the gain should survive the next session, before the Fed decides and before Microsoft and Alphabet report. If the Nasdaq closes below Friday’s 25,955.34 on Tuesday 27 October, the rally was positioning and this file gave the filing too much weight.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "nasdaq",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 25955.34
            }
          ]
        },
        "evidenceNeeded": null,
        "deadline": "2026-10-27"
      },
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    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 11,
      "id": "F-011",
      "edition": "2026-10-26",
      "published": "2026-10-26T18:30:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "If forced selling was the cause, gold should not make new lows while stocks hold up. If spot gold closes below Friday’s low of $3,975 on a day the S&P 500 closes above 7,600, by 6 November, the selling is not about the stock market and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "gold",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 3975
            },
            {
              "metric": "spx",
              "op": ">",
              "value": 7600
            }
          ]
        },
        "evidenceNeeded": null,
        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
      },
      "textHash": "112c25f38b36a9da27584bbe6e8fa9ac7ad7db103221fb2b218cfbf1b640797c",
      "prev": "e3c0b16edf82e159f199c7b88fd5bd87141598c86984984af9c1ab5099331f57",
      "hash": "e30f27c052071ef76de68ef6092d412210078b90edc14bacdc22a19bb5b6dbcc"
    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 12,
      "id": "F-012",
      "edition": "2026-10-27",
      "published": "2026-10-27T18:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that the rally rests on committed AI spending, not on lower oil or hopes for easier rates. If the Nasdaq closes below 25,800 on a day the 10-year yield closes below 5.10%, by 6 November, the demand evidence has not held and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "nasdaq",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 25800
            },
            {
              "metric": "us10y",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 5.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "evidenceNeeded": null,
        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
      },
      "textHash": "0bc7180384d0df8a7ffd45a0ee959563929a7d56a07ee1582b2732f1c1abea4c",
      "prev": "e30f27c052071ef76de68ef6092d412210078b90edc14bacdc22a19bb5b6dbcc",
      "hash": "02a2bf92f2e7c774858bd659b7828022020c3e46bbeb2615f1f70877def4c013"
    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 13,
      "id": "F-013",
      "edition": "2026-10-27",
      "published": "2026-10-27T18:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that the Ras Tanura claim is a risk event, not a supply event. If Saudi Aramco or the Saudi government confirms damage that reduced output at Ras Tanura by 6 November, the attack was a supply event and this file understated it.",
        "mode": "editor",
        "test": null,
        "evidenceNeeded": "An official Saudi Aramco or Saudi government statement confirming lost output at Ras Tanura.",
        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
      },
      "textHash": "045eacb361dca86771a858bf83e12a4918c003ee4e48e7f3682b30fa4655efc9",
      "prev": "02a2bf92f2e7c774858bd659b7828022020c3e46bbeb2615f1f70877def4c013",
      "hash": "b96cd6923fa8539a7961d6cb8aa47b18d00ac53b2201d396f536b9b68d2fabf5"
    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 14,
      "id": "F-014",
      "edition": "2026-10-28",
      "published": "2026-10-28T09:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that the rally rests on AI spending that Microsoft and Alphabet will confirm. If the Nasdaq closes below 26,000 on a day the 10-year yield closes below 5.10%, by Friday 30 October, the results have not supported the spending case and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "nasdaq",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 26000
            },
            {
              "metric": "us10y",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 5.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "evidenceNeeded": null,
        "deadline": "2026-10-30"
      },
      "textHash": "01900ec9e9ad72959e4faf1dbaee755ab252041c42d82083af785d856edc3891",
      "prev": "b96cd6923fa8539a7961d6cb8aa47b18d00ac53b2201d396f536b9b68d2fabf5",
      "hash": "ba2b541c0d3ebc964b228eccdb50bd58d23d481df2b5a8806fe23ec101f209b5"
    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 15,
      "id": "F-015",
      "edition": "2026-10-28",
      "published": "2026-10-28T09:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that oil, not the labour market, is keeping the Fed on a hiking path. If the 10-year yield closes below 4.85% on a day Brent closes above $110, by 13 November, bond markets have stopped pricing oil-driven hikes and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "auto",
        "test": {
          "all": [
            {
              "metric": "us10y",
              "op": "<",
              "value": 4.85
            },
            {
              "metric": "brent",
              "op": ">",
              "value": 110
            }
          ]
        },
        "evidenceNeeded": null,
        "deadline": "2026-11-13"
      },
      "textHash": "4b1aa9bdb24c34a77d97faef3c6e585291cd7655eb6d865f19a09fe1c4b6f180",
      "prev": "ba2b541c0d3ebc964b228eccdb50bd58d23d481df2b5a8806fe23ec101f209b5",
      "hash": "62385c7830620d515ff09c58fa06d3a95965587f95e8454830c1427118c3ca8d"
    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 16,
      "id": "F-016",
      "edition": "2026-10-29",
      "published": "2026-10-29T06:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that investors are marking Alphabet down for funding AI with borrowing rather than cash. If Alphabet closes above $321.89, its close before the results, by 6 November, the market has looked past the cash shortfall and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "editor",
        "test": null,
        "evidenceNeeded": "An official closing price for Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) above $321.89 on any session to 6 November.",
        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
      },
      "textHash": "5f4446b0c5af6898af8efc8967533c63192cc808f9b535450e0f1587e0f5234e",
      "prev": "62385c7830620d515ff09c58fa06d3a95965587f95e8454830c1427118c3ca8d",
      "hash": "0ef4ac19d3287859992f0c7ea064491a89e2d6c179646e305419a85937a5ce94"
    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 17,
      "id": "F-017",
      "edition": "2026-10-29",
      "published": "2026-10-29T06:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that the two dissents make a December hike the base case. If the Fed leaves its target range at 3.75% to 4% at its 9 December meeting, this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "editor",
        "test": null,
        "evidenceNeeded": "The FOMC statement released after the 9 December 2026 meeting.",
        "deadline": "2026-12-09"
      },
      "textHash": "6f198c2080548e80911c915c7d575425e5c0f20dd2fa41ce8b301198f2f39401",
      "prev": "0ef4ac19d3287859992f0c7ea064491a89e2d6c179646e305419a85937a5ce94",
      "hash": "6664b7129b1cb5cfccd11cbb5be4d95f57d3464d8af4b38be7cee7c9fe259967"
    },
    {
      "v": 1,
      "seq": 18,
      "id": "F-018",
      "edition": "2026-10-30",
      "published": "2026-10-30T06:00:00Z",
      "sealed": "2026-10-31",
      "call": {
        "text": "Our read is that investors will price Amazon by its cash flow, as they priced Alphabet. If Amazon closes above $243.79, its close before the results, by 6 November, the market has looked past the cash outflow and this file is wrong.",
        "mode": "editor",
        "test": null,
        "evidenceNeeded": "An official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) above $243.79 on any session to 6 November.",
        "deadline": "2026-11-06"
      },
      "textHash": "d52752ba8dd784d118f4a64cd4c66ae7d72141a7998c066d05e02f7da2febf7f",
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    }
  ],
  "head": "961c5f35c7a4612738e9a0b487e318b69e77bf144347f7faebef0ab6de7c0ace",
  "count": 18,
  "anchors": []
}