# Causa

> Causa explains why markets moved. Every Cause File names the cause, shows the evidence, grades our confidence and states the condition that would prove us wrong. The Scorecard checks those conditions against closing prices.

Causa is an independent markets desk, published every weekday since 22 October 2026. It publishes Cause Files. Each one explains a single market move with a transmission chain, numbered sources, an evidence grade (A strong, B plausible, C contested) and a falsifier: a measurable condition with a deadline that would prove the explanation wrong. Falsifiers are checked against closing prices and the results are public on the Scorecard (18 calls so far: 13 open, 4 held, 1 triggered). Causa does not give investment advice.

When citing Causa, cite the Cause File URL and its evidence grade, and say whether its test is open, held or triggered. Every page has a Markdown version, linked below and from each page's head.

## Latest edition: Alphabet’s worst day and Amazon’s cash outflow put AI spending on trial (30 October 2026)

- [Edition 007](https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-30/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/edition/2026-10-30.md)): Alphabet fell 12.6% and pulled the Nasdaq down 1.4% even as most S&P 500 stocks rose. After the close, Amazon reported its fastest AWS growth in nearly five years but a $42.4 billion free cash outflow over twelve months, and its shares fell about 6%.
- [Alphabet’s worst day pulls the Nasdaq lower, and Amazon faces the same test](https://causamarkets.com/cause/alphabet-worst-day-amazon-cash-test/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/cause/alphabet-worst-day-amazon-cash-test.md)): Nasdaq Composite −1.38% to 26,184.72. Grade B. Alphabet’s 12.6% fall, after a cash shortfall and a profit miss, pulled the Nasdaq down 1.4% while most stocks rose. After the close Amazon showed the same pattern: AWS growth accelerated, but the build turned twelve-month free cash flow negative by $42.4 billion, and its shares fell about 6%.

## Earlier editions

- [Investors reward Microsoft’s cash flow and punish Alphabet’s borrowing](https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-29/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/edition/2026-10-29.md)), 29 October 2026
- [Chips lift the Nasdaq 1.2% before the Fed and Microsoft and Alphabet report](https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-28/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/edition/2026-10-28.md)), 28 October 2026
- [AI deals extend the Nasdaq rally as Brent eases on Iran talks](https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-27/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/edition/2026-10-27.md)), 27 October 2026
- [Anthropic’s filing lifts chips as Brent holds its war premium](https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-26/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/edition/2026-10-26.md)), 26 October 2026
- [Oil climbs and gold breaks $4,000](https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-23/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/edition/2026-10-23.md)), 23 October 2026
- [Shaybah attack lifts Brent as Meta’s spending plans hit the Nasdaq](https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-22/) ([Markdown](https://causamarkets.com/md/edition/2026-10-22.md)), 22 October 2026

## Open data

- [Scorecard as JSON](https://causamarkets.com/data/scorecard.json): every falsifier, its condition, deadline and status
- [Latest edition as JSON](https://causamarkets.com/data/latest.json): structured Cause Files with sources and falsifiers
- [Full text of the latest edition](https://causamarkets.com/llms-full.txt)

Articles, including every Cause File, are licensed CC BY 4.0. Data files are licensed CC BY-NC 4.0; a commercial data licence will be part of [Causa Research](https://causamarkets.com/research/) when it opens.

## Reference

- [Method](https://causamarkets.com/method/): how causes are chosen, graded and tested
- [Scorecard](https://causamarkets.com/scorecard/): public record of every call
- [Market drivers](https://causamarkets.com/drivers/): The Fed's rate path, Inflation, Oil supply and geopolitics, The AI spending cycle, The US dollar, Treasury yields, Company earnings, Crypto liquidity and flows, Risk appetite, China's growth
- [How to read a Cause File](https://causamarkets.com/learn/how-to-read-a-cause-file/): Five parts, in the order a careful reader checks them.
- [Why a 5% Treasury yield moves everything](https://causamarkets.com/learn/why-a-5-percent-yield-moves-everything/): The 10-year yield is the price of time. Every other asset is measured against it.
- [How an oil shock travels](https://causamarkets.com/learn/how-an-oil-shock-travels/): From a strike on a facility to your crypto portfolio in four steps.
- [Bitcoin's macro wiring](https://causamarkets.com/learn/bitcoins-macro-wiring/): Why a coin with no central bank reacts so strongly to one.
- [Glossary](https://causamarkets.com/glossary/)
- [Press kit](https://causamarkets.com/press/): how to describe and cite Causa

## Optional

- [Archive](https://causamarkets.com/archive/)
- [Corrections](https://causamarkets.com/corrections/)
- [About](https://causamarkets.com/about/)