--- title: "Two votes for a hike keep December live and lift the 10-year above 5%" url: https://causamarkets.com/cause/fed-holds-two-vote-to-hike/ publisher: Causa author: Causa Desk published: 2026-10-29T06:00:00Z updated: 2026-10-29T06:00:00Z asset: US 10-year Treasury yield move: "+5.2 bp to 5.044%" grade: B falsifier: F-017 status: open license: CC BY 4.0 --- # Two votes for a hike keep December live and lift the 10-year above 5% Causa Cause File. US 10-year Treasury yield +5.2 bp to 5.044%. Thursday 29 October 2026, Before the US open, 06:00 GMT, with Wednesday’s closes. ## Why did the US 10-year yield rise on Wednesday 28 October 2026? The Fed held at 3.75% to 4%, but two officials voted to raise rates and the statement said inflation remains elevated. Traders kept about an 85% chance of a December hike, and the 10-year yield closed above 5%. ## Transmission chain 1. Fed holds in a 10 to 2 vote: Cook and Hammack prefer a hike. 2. December hike stays priced: About 85%, per Bloomberg data cited by Yahoo Finance. 3. Statement leaves energy out: Inflation remains elevated; no mention of oil. 4. 10-year +5.2 bp: 5.044% at the close. ## The evidence **Observed.** The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.2 basis points to 5.044% on Wednesday, while the 2-year was little changed at 4.731%. The dollar index slipped 0.16% to 102.16. Brent settled up 1.26% at $115.32 and US crude rose 2.88% to $102.78. (Sources: [Capp Notes](https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-wednesday-october-28)) **Reported.** The Fed kept its target range at 3.75% to 4% by 10 votes to 2; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase. The statement said inflation remains elevated, that job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and that uncertainty remains elevated owing in part to geopolitical developments. It did not mention energy prices. (Sources: [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm)) **Reported.** Chair Kevin Warsh said policy is starting to work some, with no firm conclusions, and that politics played no role in the decision six days before the midterm elections. Traders kept about an 85% chance of a December hike and expect the policy rate to approach 4.7% by September 2027, according to Bloomberg data cited by Yahoo Finance. (Sources: [Yahoo Finance](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/live/fed-meeting-live-updates-interest-rates-held-steady-in-split-vote-warsh-says-politics-played-no-role-ahead-of-midterm-elections-191946928.html)) **Our read.** Our read is that the hold was hawkish in substance. Two dissents in favour of a hike, a statement that calls the labour market steady and inflation elevated, and unchanged December pricing all point to a hike on 9 December. The statement gives less support than we expected to our 28 October Brent file: it frames the problem as inflation in general, not energy. F-015 tests that link through market prices and stays open. (Sources: [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm), [Yahoo Finance](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/live/fed-meeting-live-updates-interest-rates-held-steady-in-split-vote-warsh-says-politics-played-no-role-ahead-of-midterm-elections-191946928.html)) **Desk note.** F-005 fails if the 10-year yield closes above 5.15% by Friday with Brent above $110, and the market yield is about 11 basis points short. F-015 fails if the 10-year closes below 4.85% while Brent is above $110, by 13 November. (Sources: [Capp Notes](https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-wednesday-october-28)) This is not a call on oil. The statement did not cite energy, and this file reads the decision on its own terms. ## Evidence grade: B The statement and the vote are on the record. How much of the yield rise came from the Fed rather than higher oil on the day is our judgment. ## What would prove us wrong Our read is that the two dissents make a December hike the base case. If the Fed leaves its target range at 3.75% to 4% at its 9 December meeting, this file is wrong. - Test: F-017, resolved by an editor on: The FOMC statement released after the 9 December 2026 meeting. - Deadline: 9 December 2026 - Status: Open until 9 December 2026 ## Sources 1. [Closing Look, Wednesday, October 28, 2026](https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-wednesday-october-28), Capp Notes, 28 October 2026 2. [Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 28 October 2026 3. [Rate decision live: Interest rates held steady in split vote, Warsh says politics played 'no role' ahead of midterm elections](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/live/fed-meeting-live-updates-interest-rates-held-steady-in-split-vote-warsh-says-politics-played-no-role-ahead-of-midterm-elections-191946928.html), Yahoo Finance, 28 October 2026 --- Cite as: Causa Desk. "Two votes for a hike keep December live and lift the 10-year above 5%." Causa, 29 October 2026. https://causamarkets.com/cause/fed-holds-two-vote-to-hike/