---
title: "Chips lift the Nasdaq 1.2% before the Fed and Microsoft and Alphabet report."
url: https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-10-28/
publisher: Causa
edition: 5
published: 2026-10-28T09:00:00Z
updated: 2026-10-28T09:00:00Z
license: CC BY 4.0
---

# Chips lift the Nasdaq 1.2% before the Fed and Microsoft and Alphabet report.

Causa, Edition 005. Wednesday 28 October 2026. Before the US open, 09:00 GMT, with Tuesday’s closes.

Details of Anthropic’s planned listing carried chipmakers higher for a third session, and our first test, F-010, held. Brent fell 1.7% on Iran talks, then recovered in Asia. The Fed decides at 14:00 New York; Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.

## What moved markets on Tuesday 27 October 2026, and why

The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.18% at 26,477.81 on Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60 and the Dow was flat at 52,377.57. Reuters tied the gains to details of Anthropic’s planned listing, which lifted chipmakers for a third straight session, while Boeing fell 10.7% after cutting its delivery target. (Sources: [Reuters, via Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/us-stock-futures-muted-oil-095309821.html))

F-010, the test on Monday’s Anthropic file, held. It would have failed on a Nasdaq close below 25,955.34 by Tuesday, and the index finished 2.0% above that line. It is the first call on our Scorecard to reach its deadline intact. (Sources: [Reuters, via Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/us-stock-futures-muted-oil-095309821.html))

Brent futures settled at $113.88, down 1.67%, after Iran’s security council chief met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. Brent recovered about 1.3% in Asian trade on Wednesday. (Sources: [The Nation (Thailand)](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40072812), [FinanceFeeds](https://financefeeds.com/brent-crude-oil-price-115-59-wednesday-fed-decision-day-ras-tanura-claim-bull-120-bear-108/))

The Fed is expected to hold its target range at 3.75% to 4% at 14:00 New York, with markets pricing a hike in December instead. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, the first direct test of the spending that has carried chipmakers for three sessions. (Sources: [Raisin](https://www.raisin.com/en-us/news/pre-fomc-preview-positioning-cash-october-2026/), [Reuters, via Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/us-stock-futures-muted-oil-095309821.html), [StockTitan](https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/earnings-calendar-week-of-october-26-2026))

## The Board

| Market | Level | Move | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,478 | +1.18% | Anthropic’s listing details carry chipmakers into the earnings test |
| S&P 500 | 7,723 | +0.6% | F-008 needs a close above 7,757.17 with Brent above $112, about 0.4% away. |
| Dow Jones | 52,378 | +0.03% | Boeing down 10.7% on its delivery cut. |
| Brent crude | $113.88 | −1.67% | Brent falls on Iran talks, but oil still sets the Fed’s path |
| US crude | $99.90 | −1.83% |  |
| Gold | $4,073 | +0.86% | Up with the dollar before the Fed. |
| US 10-year yield | 5.00% | +1 bp | Market level at the close. The official FRED figure follows. |

## Cause Files

### [Anthropic’s listing details carry chipmakers into the earnings test](https://causamarkets.com/cause/chips-carry-nasdaq-into-earnings/)

Nasdaq Composite +1.18% to 26,477.81. Evidence grade B.

The Nasdaq rose 1.18% as details of Anthropic’s planned listing lifted chipmakers for a third session, and F-010 held. Microsoft and Alphabet report tonight, the first direct check on whether the spending behind the rally is paying back.

Wrong if: Our read is that the rally rests on AI spending that Microsoft and Alphabet will confirm. If the Nasdaq closes below 26,000 on a day the 10-year yield closes below 5.10%, by Friday 30 October, the results have not supported the spending case and this file is wrong. (F-014, deadline 30 October 2026)

### [Brent falls on Iran talks, but oil still sets the Fed’s path](https://causamarkets.com/cause/brent-falls-fed-weighs-oil/)

Brent crude −1.67% to $113.88. Evidence grade B.

Brent fell for a second session as Iran’s leadership reviewed talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. Attacks on shipping remain at record levels, and the Fed meets today with markets pricing a December hike that is hard to explain without oil.

Wrong if: Our read is that oil, not the labour market, is keeping the Fed on a hiking path. If the 10-year yield closes below 4.85% on a day Brent closes above $110, by 13 November, bond markets have stopped pricing oil-driven hikes and this file is wrong. (F-015, deadline 13 November 2026)

## What we are watching

- Wednesday 28 October, 14:00 New York, Federal Reserve decision: A hold at 3.75% to 4% is expected. The statement and press conference will show how much weight the Fed gives oil against a softer labour market, which is the question behind F-015.
- Wednesday 28 October, after the close, Microsoft and Alphabet results: Azure growth against Microsoft’s guide of about 45%, Google Cloud growth and any change to spending plans. F-014 is ruled on the market’s response.
- Wednesday 28 October, 10:30 New York, US crude inventories: The weekly government count, where a Reuters poll expects crude stocks to be little changed.
- Friday 30 October, December Brent expires; F-002 and F-014 deadlines: Our Brent calls move to January, with each line adjusted by the gap between the two contracts at expiry.