--- title: "Intel’s cash warning sinks the chipmakers, and the selling reaches gold." url: https://causamarkets.com/edition/2026-11-02/ publisher: Causa edition: 8 published: 2026-11-02T06:00:00Z updated: 2026-11-02T06:00:00Z license: CC BY 4.0 --- # Intel’s cash warning sinks the chipmakers, and the selling reaches gold. Causa, Edition 008. Monday 2 November 2026. Before the US open, 06:00 GMT, with Friday’s closes. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% as Intel lost 28.6% on a cash warning and chip stocks dropped 7.2%. Gold fell 3.3% to its lowest settlement in a year as investors raised cash, Brent rose after mines hit tankers near Hormuz, and a $6.3 billion theft at Binance hit crypto shares. ## What moved markets on Friday 30 October 2026, and why The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% to 25,437.00 on Friday, its lowest level in nearly three months, as Intel lost 28.58% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 7.20%. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07 and the Dow 1.09% to 51,770.31. (Sources: [Capp Notes](https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-friday-october-30-2026), [Reuters, via Business Standard](https://business-standard.com/world-news/nasdaq-hits-near-three-month-low-as-amazon-intel-rattle-ai-trade-126103001910_1.html)) Gold fell 3.3% to $3,898.90, its lowest settlement since October 2025, even as the 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.94% and the dollar slipped. Brent’s January contract rose 2.37% to $113.43 after tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and Binance disclosed a $6.3 billion theft. (Sources: [Capp Notes](https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-friday-october-30-2026), [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/why-gold-plunged-lowest-price-213000356.html), [Al Jazeera](https://aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/30/binance-says-2-54bn-in-crypto-funds-frozen-amid-potential-security-issue)) Three of our calls failed on Friday’s close. F-014 and F-012 both read the Nasdaq rally as resting on AI demand, and the index closed below both of their lines with the 10-year yield at 4.94%. F-004 failed when spot gold closed at $3,875.19 with the yield below 5%. All three are recorded on the Scorecard. (Sources: [Capp Notes](https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-friday-october-30-2026), [US Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610), [FinanceFeeds](https://financefeeds.com/gold-price-today-3875-saturday-week-ahead-after-second-monthly-decline-midterms-jobs-report-bull-4000-bear-3800/)) Over the weekend Binance said it had replaced about 95% of the stolen assets and began reopening withdrawals, and President Trump said the US still had to “take care of” one or two sites in Iran. Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday. (Sources: [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/01/binance-opens-crypto-withdrawals-in-phases-starting-with-bitcoin-following-usd6-3-billion-hack), [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-diplomacy-threat-resume-attacks/)) ## The Board | Market | Level | Move | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nasdaq Composite | 25,437 | −2.86% | Intel’s cash warning sinks the chipmakers and pulls the Nasdaq to a three-month low | | S&P 500 | 7,580 | −1.82% | Close. F-019 line: 7,400 with the 10-year below 4.80%. | | Dow Jones | 51,770 | −1.09% | Close. | | US 10-year yield | 4.94% | −4 bp | US Treasury daily yield. | | Gold | $3,899 | −3.3% | Gold falls to a one-year low as investors sell it to cover losses elsewhere | | Brent crude | $113.43 | +2.37% | Brent rises as mines hit tankers near Hormuz and diplomacy stalls | | US crude | $104.12 | +2.08% | Front-month settlement. | | Bitcoin | $76,758 | −1.31% | Bitcoin holds up after a $6.3 billion theft at Binance, while crypto shares fall | ## Cause Files ### [Intel’s cash warning sinks the chipmakers and pulls the Nasdaq to a three-month low](https://causamarkets.com/cause/intel-cash-warning-sinks-chips/) Nasdaq Composite −2.86% to 25,437.00. Evidence grade B. Intel fell 28.6%, its worst day on record, after forecasting a cash outflow for the year, and the chip index lost 7.2%. Amazon fell 1.4% on its own cash outflow. The selling was concentrated in the companies spending most on AI and their suppliers, while consumer staples and healthcare rose. Wrong if: Our read is that Friday’s selling was a verdict on how AI is paid for, confined to the spenders and their suppliers, not a broad growth scare. If the S&P 500 closes below 7,400 on a day the 10-year yield closes below 4.80%, by 13 November, the selling has become a growth scare and this file is wrong. (F-019, deadline 13 November 2026) ### [Gold falls to a one-year low as investors sell it to cover losses elsewhere](https://causamarkets.com/cause/gold-sold-to-raise-cash/) Gold −3.3% to $3,898.90. Evidence grade B. Gold fell 3.3% to its lowest settlement since October 2025 on a day when the dollar and Treasury yields both fell, which would normally support it. A dealer, an investment manager and Commerzbank pointed to investors selling gold to raise cash during the tech rout, and the break below July’s support at $3,975 added to the selling. Wrong if: Our read is that investors sold gold to raise cash during the tech rout. If spot gold closes below $3,800 on a day the S&P 500 closes above 7,600, by 13 November, gold is falling for reasons of its own while stocks recover, and this file is wrong. (F-020, deadline 13 November 2026) ### [Brent rises as mines hit tankers near Hormuz and diplomacy stalls](https://causamarkets.com/cause/brent-rises-on-tanker-attacks/) Brent crude +2.37% to $113.43. Evidence grade B. Brent’s January contract rose 2.37% after explosive devices damaged tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran reported more ships hitting mines. On Saturday President Trump said the US still had to deal with one or two sites in Iran, while Iran said a plan mediated by Qatar could reopen the Strait within two days if Washington meets its conditions. Wrong if: Our read is that Brent’s premium rests on attacks on shipping and the risk of renewed war after Tuesday’s vote. If the January contract settles below $110, under Thursday’s settlement of $110.80, on any session to 13 November while no deal to reopen the Strait has been announced, the market is not pricing that risk and this file is wrong. (F-021, deadline 13 November 2026) ### [Bitcoin holds up after a $6.3 billion theft at Binance, while crypto shares fall](https://causamarkets.com/cause/bitcoin-holds-after-binance-theft/) Bitcoin −1.31% to about $76,758. Evidence grade C. Binance said about $6.3 billion had been stolen from it, the largest crypto theft on record, in an attack linked to North Korea. Bitcoin fell about 5% as the news broke and ended Friday near $76,758, while Coinbase fell 10.6%. By Sunday Binance had replaced about 95% of the assets and begun reopening withdrawals. Wrong if: Our read is that the theft did more damage to crypto shares than to bitcoin itself. If bitcoin closes below $74,000 on a day the Nasdaq closes above 25,800, by 13 November, bitcoin is falling on crypto’s own troubles while tech recovers, and this file is wrong. (F-022, deadline 13 November 2026) ## What we are watching - Tuesday 3 November, US midterm elections: Concern about a return to war with Iran after the vote is rising, and Brent is pricing it. F-009 is also decided at Tuesday’s close: it fails if US crude closes below $97, against $104.12 on Friday. - Friday 6 November, October jobs report, and seven deadlines: F-001, F-006, F-008, F-011, F-013, F-016 and F-018 are all decided by Friday’s close. F-011 is the closest: it fails if spot gold closes below $3,975 on a day the S&P 500 closes above 7,600. - To 13 November, Four new calls: F-019 to F-022 test today’s reads on stocks, gold, oil and bitcoin against official closes.