Start with the move
Every file opens with one number: what moved, by how much, and at what time. If the figure is intraday, we say so, because a price at 11:00 in New York can look very different by the close.
The move is the only part of the file that is pure fact. Everything after it is explanation, and explanation can be wrong.
Follow the chain
The transmission chain shows how an event reached a price. A drone strike does not move oil directly. Fear for future supply does. Each step in the chain is a claim you can test on its own.
Weak links are where explanations fail. If a step feels like a leap, it probably is, and the grade should reflect it.
Check the evidence
Each paragraph carries numbered sources. We prefer primary sources, such as a ministry statement or company results, then reporting from established outlets, then market data. We never cite a source we have not read.
Read the grade
A means the cause is confirmed by independent sources and the timing, direction and size all fit. B means a strong case with overlapping causes. C means the best explanation we have, with live alternatives that we name.
A C grade is not a failure. Publishing a weak explanation as if it were strong would be.
Find the falsifier
The falsifier is the condition that would prove the file wrong, with a deadline. Most are checked automatically against closing prices. Some need an official statement, and an editor resolves those with the evidence linked.
If you only read one part of a Cause File, read this one. It tells you what the explanation predicts, and therefore what to watch.