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Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
Public record

The Scorecard

Every Cause File states the condition that would invalidate it, with a deadline. This page tracks each one against official closes. Failed calls stay on the record.

18Calls published
13Open, test still running
4Held, passed the test
1Triggered, failed the test
5 resolved4 held, 1 triggered so far. Next deadline 3 Nov
Open
The test is still running: the deadline has not arrived and no close has met the condition.
Held
The deadline passed without the condition being met. The explanation survived its test.
Triggered
A closing price met the condition before the deadline. The explanation failed its test, and stays on the record.

Held and triggered calls are resolved. Open calls are not counted either way until their deadline or their trigger.

Want an email when a call nears its line? Alerts are part of Causa Research, opening soon.

The record began on 22 October 2026. A handful of resolved calls says little about how often we are right, so we show counts rather than a survival rate until ten calls have resolved.

Are our grades honest?

Every file carries a grade for how strongly the evidence supports its cause. If the grades mean anything, A calls should hold more often than B calls, and B more often than C.

Calls by evidence grade
GradeCallsHeldFailedOpenHit rate
AStrong2002Shown after 10 resolved (0 so far)
BPlausible13418Shown after 10 resolved (5 so far)
CContested3003Shown after 10 resolved (0 so far)

A hit rate on a handful of calls is noise, so each grade shows one only after ten of its calls have resolved. When it does, this table becomes a public test of our own judgment.

Verdicts

Every call that has reached a result, newest first. Each links to the file exactly as it was published.

TriggeredF-014Failed its test on 30 October 2026

Anthropic’s listing details carry chipmakers into the earnings test

Wrong if

Nasdaq closes below 26,000, and on the same session US 10-year closes below 5.10%

Nasdaq 25,437US 10-year 4.94%

Corrected on 31 October. Our grading run first marked this call held before the 10-year yield for 30 October had reached our feed. On 30 October the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,437.00 and the US Treasury 10-year yield was 4.94%, so both conditions were met on the same session. See the corrections log.

Published 28 October 2026 in Edition 005. Ruled by an editor on the published evidence.

HeldF-005Held to 30 October 2026

Treasuries catch a bid while oil climbs

Wrong if

US 10-year closes above 5.15%, and on the same session Brent closes above $110.00

Published 22 October 2026 in Edition 001. Ruled by an editor on the published evidence.

Open calls, by deadline

Each line runs from publication, the open dot, to deadline, the solid dot. The blue line is today.

F-009Brent crude
F-001Brent crude
F-004Gold
F-006Brent crude
F-008US stocks
F-011Gold
F-012Nasdaq Composite
F-013Brent crude
F-016Alphabet
F-018Nasdaq Composite
F-007Gold
F-015Brent crude
F-017US 10-year Treasury yield
22 OctBlue line: today, 1 Nov9 Dec

Every call

The full ledger. Filter by result or by market.

18 calls shown

All published falsifiers and their status
CallWrong ifPublishedDeadlineStatus
F-001
Brent prices Saudi supply risk after the Shaybah drone attack		 An official Saudi Energy Ministry or Aramco statement reporting lost output.
Editor resolved		 22 Oct 6 Nov Open
F-002
Meta falls 6% on higher spending guidance despite a beat		 Nasdaq closes above 26,702.86, and on the same session Brent closes above $108.00 22 Oct 30 Oct Held
deadline passed
F-003
Bitcoin reverses from a two-week high as Brent tops $111		 Bitcoin closes above $84,000, and on the same session Brent closes above $108.00 22 Oct 29 Oct Held
deadline passed
F-004
Gold falls 1.9% in a risk-off session		 Gold closes below $4,000, and on the same session US 10-year closes below 5.00% 22 Oct 6 Nov Open

Reopened on 27 October. We first ruled this call triggered using a market quote of 4.988% for the 10-year yield. Our declared source, the US Treasury daily yield, was 5.00% on 23 October, which is not below the line. See the corrections log.
History: Published 22 Oct, then ruled triggered on 23 Oct, then reopened 27 Oct after a correction. Corrections log
F-005
Treasuries catch a bid while oil climbs		 US 10-year closes above 5.15%, and on the same session Brent closes above $110.00 22 Oct 30 Oct Held
deadline passed
F-006
Brent tops $116 on reports of planned strikes on Iran		 Brent closes below $108.00 23 Oct 6 Nov Open
F-007
Gold breaks $4,000, and our explanation is failing its test		 Gold closes below $3,900, and on the same session Nasdaq closes above 26,000 23 Oct 13 Nov Open
F-008
Oil pulls the Dow down while chips steady		 S&P 500 closes above 7,757.17, and on the same session Brent closes above $112.00 23 Oct 6 Nov Open
F-009
Brent recovers most of its Tehran talks dip as no deal emerges		 WTI closes below $97.00 26 Oct 3 Nov Open
F-010
Anthropic’s S-1 quantifies AI demand and lifts chipmakers		 Nasdaq closes below 25,955.34 26 Oct 27 Oct Held
deadline passed
F-011
Gold climbs back over $4,000 as stocks calm		 Gold closes below $3,975, and on the same session S&P 500 closes above 7,600 26 Oct 6 Nov Open
F-012
Anthropic’s compute deal and Meta’s raise extend the AI rally		 Nasdaq closes below 25,800, and on the same session US 10-year closes below 5.10% 27 Oct 6 Nov Open
F-013
Brent eases for a second day as Iran keeps talking		 An official Saudi Aramco or Saudi government statement confirming lost output at Ras Tanura.
Editor resolved		 27 Oct 6 Nov Open
F-014
Anthropic’s listing details carry chipmakers into the earnings test		 Nasdaq closes below 26,000, and on the same session US 10-year closes below 5.10% 28 Oct 30 Oct Triggered
on 30 Oct
Corrected on 31 October. Our grading run first marked this call held before the 10-year yield for 30 October had reached our feed. On 30 October the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,437.00 and the US Treasury 10-year yield was 4.94%, so both conditions were met on the same session. See the corrections log.
History: Published 28 Oct, then ruled held on 30 Oct, then reopened 31 Oct after a correction. Corrections log
F-015
Brent falls on Iran talks, but oil still sets the Fed’s path		 US 10-year closes below 4.85%, and on the same session Brent closes above $110.00 28 Oct 13 Nov Open
F-016
Investors reward Microsoft’s cash flow and punish Alphabet’s borrowing		 An official closing price for Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) above $321.89 on any session to 6 November.
Editor resolved		 29 Oct 6 Nov Open
F-017
Two votes for a hike keep December live and lift the 10-year above 5%		 The FOMC statement released after the 9 December 2026 meeting.
Editor resolved		 29 Oct 9 Dec Open
F-018
Alphabet’s worst day pulls the Nasdaq lower, and Amazon faces the same test		 An official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) above $243.79 on any session to 6 November.
Editor resolved		 30 Oct 6 Nov Open

How resolution works

After each session, a script reads closing prices into the record and tests every open condition. A call is triggered on the first close that meets its condition. A call holds if its deadline passes without that happening. Intraday and provisional prices never count, so a call cannot be resolved by a spike that reverses before the close.

Some conditions depend on an official statement rather than a price. An editor resolves those and links the statement that settled it.

We never edit a published call. If we made a mistake in the wording, it goes in the corrections log and the original stays visible.

The full record is open data: download the Scorecard as JSON.