The Atlas
Every Cause File records which forces moved which assets. Over time this becomes a map of what actually drives each market, built from evidence rather than opinion.
Drivers against assets
Each cell counts the Cause Files where that driver helped explain that move. Built from 7 editions.
| Driver | Nasdaq Composite | Alphabet | US 10-year yield | Brent crude | Gold | US stocks | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fed's rate path | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Inflation | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oil supply and geopolitics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| The AI spending cycle | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| The US dollar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Treasury yields | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Company earnings | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Crypto liquidity and flows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Risk appetite | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| China's growth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Every chain on record
Alphabet’s worst day pulls the Nasdaq lower, and Amazon faces the same test
Alphabet’s results are repriced → AI spenders sold on cash flow → Breadth holds → Nasdaq -1.38%
Investors reward Microsoft’s cash flow and punish Alphabet’s borrowing
Results land the same evening → Cloud growth beats at both → Cash flow splits the verdict → Alphabet -9.3% after hours
Two votes for a hike keep December live and lift the 10-year above 5%
Fed holds in a 10 to 2 vote → December hike stays priced → Statement leaves energy out → 10-year +5.2 bp
Anthropic’s listing details carry chipmakers into the earnings test
Anthropic’s listing details circulate → Chip demand looks committed → Technology leads, energy lags → Nasdaq +1.18%
Brent falls on Iran talks, but oil still sets the Fed’s path
Iran’s leadership reviews the talks → Traders trim the war premium → Shipping risk stays high → Brent -1.67%
Anthropic’s compute deal and Meta’s raise extend the AI rally
Anthropic signs for SpaceX computing → Chipmakers back Meta’s share sale → AI spending looks funded → Nasdaq +1.03%
Brent eases for a second day as Iran keeps talking
Iran keeps talking with the Saudi-led group → Traders take profit on the premium → Physical supply stays tight → Brent -0.86%
Brent recovers most of its Tehran talks dip as no deal emerges
Saudi-led delegation meets Iran’s president → Morning selloff on the talks → No agreement, and attacks continue → Brent -0.66%
Anthropic’s S-1 quantifies AI demand and lifts chipmakers
Anthropic files to list on Nasdaq → AI spending gets a named buyer → Chipmakers lead → Nasdaq +0.98%
Gold climbs back over $4,000 as stocks calm
Stocks rebound after two weak weeks → Less selling to raise cash → Buyers return after the worst week in four months → Gold +0.59%
Brent tops $116 on reports of planned strikes on Iran
Reports of US strikes on Iran after the midterms → Saudi energy sites stay in range → The war premium widens → Brent +3.0%
Gold breaks $4,000, and our explanation is failing its test
Hedge funds take heavy losses → Investors raise cash fast → Liquid assets get sold → Gold -0.7%
Oil pulls the Dow down while chips steady
Oil settles above $116 → Fuel and inflation costs bite → Company news adds weight → Dow -1.1%
Brent prices Saudi supply risk after the Shaybah drone attack
Houthi drone targets a Shaybah processing plant → Saudi energy sites look exposed → Risk premium widens on Brent → Brent +2.7% to $111.77
Meta falls 6% on higher spending guidance despite a beat
Meta beats, then raises its spending floor → Investors question the return on AI spending → Mega-caps and chip stocks sell off → Nasdaq -2.2%
Bitcoin reverses from a two-week high as Brent tops $111
Brent pushes above $111 → Inflation worries return → Risk assets lose appeal → Bitcoin -3.4%
Gold falls 1.9% in a risk-off session
Fed still in hiking mode → Oil adds to inflation fear → Yield-free gold loses ground → Gold -1.9%
Treasuries catch a bid while oil climbs
Tech stocks sell off → Money moves into Treasuries → Fed seen on hold next week → 10-year -8 bp