Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
Every edition

Archive

Editions, newest first

00730 Oct

Alphabet’s worst day and Amazon’s cash outflow put AI spending on trial

Alphabet fell 12.6% and pulled the Nasdaq down 1.4% even as most S&P 500 stocks rose. After the close, Amazon reported its fastest AWS growth in nearly five years but a $42.4 billion free cash outflow over twelve months, and its shares fell about 6%.

1 Cause FilesFriday
00629 Oct

Investors reward Microsoft’s cash flow and punish Alphabet’s borrowing

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% with two officials voting to hike, and the 10-year yield closed above 5%. After the bell, Microsoft rose on 48% Azure growth and $18.6 billion of free cash flow, while Alphabet fell about 9% on a profit miss and a second quarter of negative free cash flow.

2 Cause FilesThursday
00528 Oct

Chips lift the Nasdaq 1.2% before the Fed and Microsoft and Alphabet report

Details of Anthropic’s planned listing carried chipmakers higher for a third session, and our first test, F-010, held. Brent fell 1.7% on Iran talks, then recovered in Asia. The Fed decides at 14:00 New York; Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.

2 Cause FilesWednesday
00427 Oct

AI deals extend the Nasdaq rally as Brent eases on Iran talks

Anthropic’s computing contract with SpaceX and chipmakers’ interest in Meta’s share sale lifted the Nasdaq about 1% for a second day. Brent slipped as Iran kept talking, and Boeing fell 10%.

2 Cause FilesTuesday
00326 Oct

Anthropic’s filing lifts chips as Brent holds its war premium

Anthropic’s IPO filing quantified AI demand and lifted the Nasdaq about 1%. Brent fell on Saudi-led talks in Tehran, then recovered most of the loss. Spot gold is back above $4,000.

3 Cause FilesMonday
00223 Oct

Oil climbs and gold breaks $4,000

Talk of new strikes on Iran pushed Brent to a six-month high and pulled the Dow lower. Gold fell below $4,000, which puts Thursday's gold explanation on the edge of failing its own test.

3 Cause FilesFriday
00122 Oct

Shaybah attack lifts Brent as Meta’s spending plans hit the Nasdaq

A drone attack near Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oilfield took Brent to a five-month high, and Meta’s spending guidance hit tech. Bitcoin and gold also fell; the evidence for those two links is weaker.

5 Cause FilesThursday