Causa
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Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
Accountability

Corrections

When we get a fact wrong, the fix is dated and logged here. Wrong explanations are not hidden as corrections. They appear on the Scorecard as triggered calls.

31 October 2026F-014 corrected: ruled held before the deadline session was fully recorded

Overnight on 30 October our grading run marked F-014 held. It ran before the US Treasury 10-year yield for 30 October had reached our data feed, so it judged the call without the deadline session. That day the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,437.00, below 26,000, and the 10-year yield was 4.94%, below 5.10%. Both conditions were met on the same session, so the call failed its test and is now marked triggered. Our grading now waits until every closing price for the deadline session is in before it marks any call held.

27 October 2026F-004 reopened: our first gold call was ruled on the wrong 10-year yield

On 24 October we marked F-004 triggered, using a market quote of 4.988% for the 10-year Treasury yield on 23 October. The source our method names for the 10-year is the US Treasury’s daily yield, published through FRED, and it was 5.00% that day. The call fails only if the yield closes below 5.00%, so the condition was not met, and F-004 is open again until 6 November. Spot gold did close below $4,000 that day, at $3,994.90. From now on we rule only on the sources our method names, whichever way that cuts.