Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
5 minute read

Bitcoin's macro wiring

Why a coin with no central bank reacts so strongly to one.

Bitcoin trades as a risk asset

Since large funds started holding bitcoin, it has often moved with technology stocks. On days when investors cut risk, both tend to fall together.

Rates set the cost of holding it

Bitcoin pays no interest. When the Fed is raising rates and Treasuries pay 5%, holding bitcoin has a clear cost. Expectations of more hikes usually weigh on it.

Flows and leverage amplify

Fund flows, futures leverage and stablecoin supply decide how far a move runs. When many traders use leverage, a small drop can force sales that make the drop larger.

Crypto-specific shocks still exist

Exchange failures, regulation and hacks can move crypto on their own. A good Cause File checks for these first. If none are present, the macro chain is usually the answer.

Next guide: How to read a Cause File