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Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
Edition 007Friday 30 October 2026Before the US open, 06:00 GMT, with Thursday’s closes

Alphabet’s worst day and Amazon’s cash outflow put AI spending on trial.

Alphabet fell 12.6% and pulled the Nasdaq down 1.4% even as most S&P 500 stocks rose. After the close, Amazon reported its fastest AWS growth in nearly five years but a $42.4 billion free cash outflow over twelve months, and its shares fell about 6%.

By the Causa DeskPublished Updated

What moved markets on Thursday 29 October 2026, and why?

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.38% to 26,184.72 on Thursday as Alphabet dropped 12.64%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.30% to 7,720.39 and the Dow 0.25% to 52,342.56, but the Russell 2000 rose 1.01% and about 80% of S&P 500 members closed higher.12

After the close, Amazon reported 39% growth at AWS and a free cash outflow of $42.4 billion over the past twelve months, after spending $77.3 billion on property and equipment in the quarter. Its shares fell about 6% after hours, and Intel fell about 17% on weak guidance.13

September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% from a year earlier, with core inflation at 3.1%, and third-quarter growth came in at 3.4% annualised. The 10-year Treasury yield still fell 7 basis points to 4.98%.12

F-003 held: Bitcoin did not close above $84,000 on any day after publication, and its highest close since was $81,328 on 23 October. Three calls are decided at today’s close, and F-014 is the live one. It fails if the Nasdaq closes below 26,000 with the 10-year yield below 5.10%, and the index is 0.7% above that line.14

Today's Cause Map
Hover or tab to a move to trace its causes. Select it to open the file.Each move, traced back to what started it. Tap one to open its file.
Cause Map for 30 October 2026 Nasdaq -1.4%, traced to Breadth holds, AI spenders sold on cash flow, Alphabet’s results repriced. WHAT HAPPENEDFIRST EFFECTKNOCK-ONWHAT MOVED Alphabet’s results repricedNegative free cash flow, profit missAI spenders sold oncash flowBreadth holdsNasdaq−1.4%
  1. Nasdaq−1.4%BPlausibleOpen the file
    1. What happenedAlphabet’s results repricedNegative free cash flow, profit miss
    2. First effectAI spenders sold on cash flow
    3. Knock-onBreadth holds
Solid lines are well-evidenced links. Dashed lines are our best reading where other explanations are still live.

The Board

Market moves and their Cause Files
AssetLevelMoveSize of moveWhy it moved
Nasdaq Composite26,185−1.38% BPlausibleAlphabet’s worst day pulls the Nasdaq lower, and Amazon faces the same test
S&P 5007,720−0.3% Close. About 80% of members rose.
Dow Jones52,343−0.25% Close.
US 10-year yield4.98%−7 bp Market level at the close. The official FRED figure follows.
Brent crude$114.88−0.38% December contract settlement. It expires today; calls move to January.
US crude$102.00−0.76% Front-month settlement.
Gold$4,032−0.49% December contract settlement. F-004 fails below $4,000 with the 10-year below 5%.

Closing levels on Thursday 29 October 2026. Sources are numbered in each Cause File.

Nasdaq Composite −1.38% to 26,184.72

Alphabet’s worst day pulls the Nasdaq lower, and Amazon faces the same test

Alphabet’s 12.6% fall, after a cash shortfall and a profit miss, pulled the Nasdaq down 1.4% while most stocks rose. After the close Amazon showed the same pattern: AWS growth accelerated, but the build turned twelve-month free cash flow negative by $42.4 billion, and its shares fell about 6%.

  1. What happened
    Alphabet’s results are repriced
    Negative free cash flow and a profit miss.
  2. Then
    AI spenders sold on cash flow
    Alphabet down 12.6%; Microsoft down 0.2%.
  3. Then
    Breadth holds
    Russell 2000 up 1.0%; most S&P 500 members higher.
  4. What moved
    Nasdaq −1.38%
    26,184.72 at the close.
BPlausibleF-018, test closes 6 November 2026Open the full Cause File

What we are watching

Friday 30 October, at the closeF-002, F-005 and F-014 deadlines

F-014 is the live one: it fails on a Nasdaq close below 26,000 with the 10-year yield below 5.10%. F-002 and F-005 are well clear of their lines.1

Friday 30 OctoberDecember Brent expires

From Monday our Brent calls are ruled on the January contract, with each line adjusted by the gap between the two contracts at expiry.5

To 6 NovemberF-004 on gold

It fails if gold closes below $4,000 while the 10-year yield is below 5%. Gold settled at $4,031.70 on Thursday and the market yield was 4.98%.1

To 6 NovemberAlphabet and Amazon against their pre-results closes

F-016 and F-018 fail if either stock closes back above its close before results: $321.89 for Alphabet, $243.79 for Amazon.67

Sources

Every source used in this edition. Each Cause File numbers its own.

  1. Closing Look, Thursday, October 29, 2026 Capp Notes, 29 October 2026
  2. Today’s Market Recap: PCE Inflation Rises to 3.6%, Alphabet Plunges 12.6% Dragging Down Nasdaq, Amazon and Intel Weaken TradingKey, 30 October 2026
  3. Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) Amazon.com, Inc., via SEC EDGAR, 29 October 2026
  4. Bitcoin historical data CoinGecko, 30 October 2026
  5. Brent Oil Futures Contracts Investing.com, 26 October 2026
  6. Microsoft passed the free-cash-flow test. Alphabet failed it by $9 billion, and Amazon is next Mitrade, 29 October 2026
  7. AWS Jumps 39% as Amazon's Cash Flow Sinks: Rapid Earnings Reaction The Motley Fool, 29 October 2026
  8. Microsoft and Alphabet Just Reported Earnings, Putting the AI Boom to the Test The Motley Fool, 28 October 2026