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Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
Edition 006Thursday 29 October 2026Before the US open, 06:00 GMT, with Wednesday’s closes

Investors reward Microsoft’s cash flow and punish Alphabet’s borrowing.

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% with two officials voting to hike, and the 10-year yield closed above 5%. After the bell, Microsoft rose on 48% Azure growth and $18.6 billion of free cash flow, while Alphabet fell about 9% on a profit miss and a second quarter of negative free cash flow.

By the Causa DeskPublished

What moved markets on Wednesday 28 October 2026, and why?

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday after the Fed decision. The S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.27% to 26,549.85 and the Dow gained 0.19% to 52,475.10, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.2 basis points to 5.044%.1

The Fed kept its target range at 3.75% to 4% by 10 votes to 2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point hike. The statement said inflation remains elevated and did not mention energy prices. Traders kept about an 85% chance of a December hike.23

After the close, Microsoft rose about 3% on 48% Azure growth and $18.6 billion of free cash flow. Alphabet fell about 9%: Google Cloud revenue more than doubled to $30.7 billion, but revenue and earnings missed estimates and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion.145

No call was decided at Wednesday’s close. F-003 on Bitcoin is decided at today’s close, and F-014 on the Nasdaq runs to Friday, when Alphabet’s results will be in the price.1

Today's Cause Map
Hover or tab to a move to trace its causes. Select it to open the file.Each move, traced back to what started it. Tap one to open its file.
Cause Map for 29 October 2026 Alphabet -9.3%, traced to Cash flow splits the verdict, Microsoft and Alphabet report. 10-year yield +5 bp, traced to December hike stays priced, Fed holds, two vote to hike. WHAT HAPPENEDFIRST EFFECTKNOCK-ONWHAT MOVED Microsoft and Alphabet reportBoth beat on cloud growthFed holds, two vote to hikeCook and Hammack dissentCash flow splits theverdictDecember hike stayspricedAlphabet−9.3%10-year yield+5 bp
  1. Alphabet−9.3%BPlausibleOpen the file
    1. What happenedMicrosoft and Alphabet reportBoth beat on cloud growth
    2. First effectCash flow splits the verdict
  2. 10-year yield+5 bpBPlausibleOpen the file
    1. What happenedFed holds, two vote to hikeCook and Hammack dissent
    2. Knock-onDecember hike stays priced
Solid lines are well-evidenced links. Dashed lines are our best reading where other explanations are still live.

The Board

Market moves and their Cause Files
AssetLevelMoveSize of moveWhy it moved
Alphabet, after hours$291.85−9.33% BPlausibleInvestors reward Microsoft’s cash flow and punish Alphabet’s borrowing
Nasdaq Composite26,550+0.27% F-014 line: 26,000 by Friday.
S&P 5007,744+0.28% F-008 needs a close above 7,757.17 with Brent above $112, about 0.2% away.
Dow Jones52,475+0.19% No clear single cause
US 10-year yield5.04%+5 bp BPlausibleTwo votes for a hike keep December live and lift the 10-year above 5%
Brent crude$115.32+1.26% December contract, settlement. Expires Friday.
US crude$102.78+2.88% Brent falls on Iran talks, but oil still sets the Fed’s path
Gold$4,052−0.53% December contract, settlement.
Bitcoin$81,255+0.78% F-003 is decided today: it fails above 84,000 with Brent above $108.

Closing levels on Wednesday 28 October 2026. Sources are numbered in each Cause File.

Alphabet −9.3% to $291.85

Investors reward Microsoft’s cash flow and punish Alphabet’s borrowing

Microsoft and Alphabet both reported fast cloud growth, but only Microsoft paid for its spending from cash. Alphabet fell about 9% after hours on a profit miss, a second quarter of negative free cash flow and heavy borrowing.

  1. What happened
    Results land the same evening
    Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.
  2. Then
    Cloud growth beats at both
    Azure up 48%, Google Cloud up 103%.
  3. Then
    Cash flow splits the verdict
    Microsoft $18.6bn positive; Alphabet $9.1bn negative.
  4. What moved
    Alphabet −9.3% after hours
    $291.85 from a $321.89 close.
BPlausibleF-016, test closes 6 November 2026Open the full Cause File
US 10-year Treasury yield +5.2 bp to 5.044%

Two votes for a hike keep December live and lift the 10-year above 5%

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4%, but two officials voted to raise rates and the statement said inflation remains elevated. Traders kept about an 85% chance of a December hike, and the 10-year yield closed above 5%.

  1. What happened
    Fed holds in a 10 to 2 vote
    Cook and Hammack prefer a hike.
  2. Then
    December hike stays priced
    About 85%, per Bloomberg data cited by Yahoo Finance.
  3. Then
    Statement leaves energy out
    Inflation remains elevated; no mention of oil.
  4. What moved
    10-year +5.2 bp
    5.044% at the close.
BPlausibleF-017, test closes 9 December 2026Open the full Cause File

What we are watching

Thursday 29 October, after the closeAmazon results

The third test of AI spending this week, judged on cloud growth and on whether free cash flow survives the build.5

Thursday 29 October, at the closeF-003 deadline

The Bitcoin call fails on a close above 84,000 with Brent above $108; Bitcoin was near 81,255 on Wednesday.1

Friday 30 OctoberDecember Brent expires; F-002, F-005 and F-014 deadlines

Our Brent calls move to the January contract, with each line adjusted by the gap between the two contracts at expiry.6

Tuesday 3 NovemberUS midterm elections

Warsh said politics played no role in this week’s decision, which came six days before the vote.3

Sources

Every source used in this edition. Each Cause File numbers its own.

  1. Closing Look, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 Capp Notes, 28 October 2026
  2. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 28 October 2026
  3. Rate decision live: Interest rates held steady in split vote, Warsh says politics played 'no role' ahead of midterm elections Yahoo Finance, 28 October 2026
  4. Microsoft and Alphabet Just Reported Earnings, Putting the AI Boom to the Test The Motley Fool, 28 October 2026
  5. Microsoft passed the free-cash-flow test. Alphabet failed it by $9 billion, and Amazon is next Mitrade, 29 October 2026
  6. Brent Oil Futures Contracts Investing.com, 26 October 2026
  7. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon Lead the Earnings Week of October 26 StockTitan, 26 October 2026