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Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
Market fileNasdaq Composite

Why is the Nasdaq moving?

Every move in the Nasdaq we have explained, newest first, with the evidence and the test each explanation had to pass.

Latest explanationThursday 29 October 2026

Alphabet’s worst day pulls the Nasdaq lower, and Amazon faces the same test

−1.38% to 26,184.72

Alphabet’s 12.6% fall, after a cash shortfall and a profit miss, pulled the Nasdaq down 1.4% while most stocks rose. After the close Amazon showed the same pattern: AWS growth accelerated, but the build turned twelve-month free cash flow negative by $42.4 billion, and its shares fell about 6%.

BPlausibleOpenRead the evidence and the testSealed 961c5f35c7a4

Last official close

25,437−2.86%

30 October 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Our record on the Nasdaq

5 calls: 2 held, 1 failed, 2 open.

The full Scorecard

25,00025,50026,00026,50027,00027,50028,000 25,437 25 Aug 30 Oct
Nasdaq Composite, daily close. 48 sessions to 30 October 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Every explanation on record

Each file stays exactly as published. The status shows how its test has fared.

  1. 29 Oct Alphabet’s worst day pulls the Nasdaq lower, and Amazon faces the same test−1.38% to 26,184.72 BPlausibleOpen
  2. 27 Oct Anthropic’s listing details carry chipmakers into the earnings test+1.18% to 26,477.81 BPlausibleTriggered
  3. 27 Oct Anthropic’s compute deal and Meta’s raise extend the AI rally+1.03% to 26,438 BPlausibleOpen
  4. 26 Oct Anthropic’s S-1 quantifies AI demand and lifts chipmakers+0.98% to 26,211 BPlausibleHeld
  5. 22 Oct Meta falls 6% on higher spending guidance despite a beat−2.2% to 26,108 BPlausibleHeld

What usually moves the Nasdaq

The drivers behind most moves in the Nasdaq, and the trap in reading each one.

The Fed's rate path

What the Federal Reserve is expected to do next, and how fast.

The trap. The decision itself rarely moves markets. The surprise relative to what was priced does.

The AI spending cycle

How much the largest companies spend on chips, data centres and power.

The trap. The same spending number can lift a supplier and sink the buyer on the same day.

Treasury yields

The interest rate the US government pays to borrow.

The trap. Yields can rise for good reasons, such as stronger growth, and bad ones, such as inflation or heavy borrowing. The reason matters.

Company earnings

Quarterly results and, more importantly, guidance.

The trap. Beating forecasts is not enough if the outlook disappoints.

Risk appetite

How willing investors are to own volatile assets.

The trap. Risk appetite describes a move. It is rarely the root cause, so we always look for what changed it.