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Closes30 Oct
S&P 5007,580−1.82%Nasdaq25,437−2.86%US 10Y4.98%−7 bp29 OctDollar102.04−0.15%29 OctBrent futures$117.64+2.4%WTI futures$102.00−0.76%29 OctGold futures$4,031−0.5%29 OctLiveBitcoin$77,381−0.59%Ether$2,243−0.27%SolanaOfficial closes, each dated, from the record the Scorecard grades on: exchange data via Yahoo Finance, US yields from FRED. Crypto live from CoinGecko.
Market fileBrent crude

Why is the oil price moving?

Every move in Brent crude we have explained, newest first, with the evidence and the test each explanation had to pass.

Last official close

$117.64+2.40%

30 October 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Our record on oil

5 calls: 0 held, 0 failed, 5 open.

The full Scorecard

$80.00$90.00$100.00$110.00$120.00$130.00 $117.64 31 Aug 30 Oct
Brent crude, daily close. 44 sessions to 30 October 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Every explanation on record

Each file stays exactly as published. The status shows how its test has fared.

  1. 27 Oct Brent falls on Iran talks, but oil still sets the Fed’s path−1.67% to $113.88 BPlausibleOpen
  2. 27 Oct Brent eases for a second day as Iran keeps talking−0.86% to $114.81 BPlausibleOpen
  3. 26 Oct Brent recovers most of its Tehran talks dip as no deal emerges−0.66% to $115.95 BPlausibleOpen
  4. 23 Oct Brent tops $116 on reports of planned strikes on Iran+3.0% to $116.57 AStrongOpen
  5. 22 Oct Brent prices Saudi supply risk after the Shaybah drone attack+2.7% to $111.77 AStrongOpen

What usually moves oil

The drivers behind most moves in Brent crude, and the trap in reading each one.

Oil supply and geopolitics

Wars, attacks and production decisions that change the oil price.

The trap. Premiums fade fast when a feared disruption does not happen. Shortages do not.

The US dollar

The strength of the dollar against other major currencies.

The trap. In a real panic the dollar and gold can both rise, because both are havens.

China's growth

The pace of the world's second-largest economy.

The trap. Official data can lag reality. Commodity imports are often a faster read.